Indian General Election: What Happened?

Indian General Election: What Happened?
Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaking.

With well over half a billion votes cast and counted India has once again held a general election, this time as the world's most populous nation. The democratic undertaking is a major project and is undergone once every 5 years. With nearly 1 billion registered voters (the turnout was roughly 66%) holding the election in 1 day is not possible, instead the election is spread out over 6 weeks and divided into 7 phases. Moreover, Indian election rules mandate a polling station be within 2km of every home, in a country 6 times the size of France, 8 times the size of Japan, or nearly 3 times the size of South Africa in terms of land. The democratic machinery of India requires great effort and showcases how democracy can work in even the largest of nations.

Narendra Modi, leader of the BJP and incumbent Prime Minister of India, was hoping for not only re-election, however, also a complete landslide. Polling and surveys projected his coalition the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would win over 400 seats in the Lok Sabha, India's parliament, comprised of 543 seats. The Indian National Congress (INC) had revitalised the opposition by founding INDIA, standing for the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, a group of united regional and smaller parties. However, closening Election Day the alliance had lost steam and started falling in the polls. Prime Minister Modi was seemingly set for a landslide, the question became how much the BJP would win instead of if they would win. After months of campaigning the election was a relative upset for Mr Modi and his BJP.

The NDA as a whole lost 58 seats whilst the BJP took the hardest hit at a loss of 63, practically meaning other parties made gains to cancel out their losses and falling to a level not seen since 2009. The BJP mustered 240 seats. However, notably, the NDA keeps its majority by a clear margin, winning 293, 21 more than the majority threshold. On the other hand, the INC nearly doubled their vote share garnering 99 seats, a net gain of 47, re-gaining long since lost seats in the North, middle, and Southern tip of the nation. The BJP was hard hit in Uttar Pradesh, the nation's most populated state and therefore also best represented in parliament, where it lost an astounding 29 seats, roughly half of the BJP's prior seats in the state. INDIA itself won 234 seats, gaining a total of 112.

Infographic of the 4 largest parties in the Lok Sabha by author. Data from Indian Electoral Commission.

The incumbent Prime Minister was widely popular ahead of the election, in February his approval ratings reached a mammoth number; 75% overall approval. The increasing global influence, rapid economic growth, and many other projects are attributed personally to Mr Modi and have played well into his image's hands. However, seemingly personal approval and party results are not linked, as the constituency elections (like the United Kingdom's House of Commons or the United States House of Representatives) did not go as planned. The result has left many BJP supporters disheartened, Modi's campaign target of 400 seats, for the NDA, made anything else seem like an underachievement.

The overconfidence of the Modi Campaign backfired; the open target of "Ab ki baar, 400 paar," gunning for more than 400 seats for his NDA group could have scared poorer voters of potential constitutional changes. Moreover, the possibility of the NDA being able to change the constitution on its own accord terrified minority religious voters, most notably Muslims, who have been subject to increasingly harsh language from Mr Modi and the BJP. The PM has referred to the minority as "infiltrators." Followers of Islam are believed to have overwhelmingly supported INDIA for this reason, giving the party a boost and motivated base. Moreover, INDIA claimed that such an NDA mandate could lead to constitutional rights for historically disadvantaged communities such as Dalits being removed alongside BJP rhetoric alienating some voters. 1 voter cleverly, in hindsight, predicted the fall of the BJP in Uttar Pradesh saying:

The “BJP will not win more than 40 seats in [Uttar Pradesh] as there is a strong undercurrent against the party.”

Simply the BJP Campaign motivated the opposition and was way overconfident moving toward the election. The threat Muslims and other minorities faced united a strong base of the electorate. Moreover, the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), the predecessor to INDIA, fell, and rebranding as INDIA energised their campaign and revitalised the opposition. The momentum of the BJP and Mr Modi fell flat due to the failure to appeal to a broad set of voters. The increasing Hindu nationalism mobilised the strongest of BJP voters, however, failed to recognise that most in the electorate prioritise other issues higher and may be alienated by such rhetoric. The BJP in a way lost touch with reality, becoming so self-obsessed, in the terms of forgetting people may disagree with their more radical wing, that they lost touch, in terms of effective campaigning. The INC campaigned on upholding justice, secularism, federalism, constitutionalism, and democracy something that seemingly resonated well. However, Hindu nationalism does not share the entire picture; higher-than-usual unemployment and inflation displeased even traditional BJP voters.

The described undercurrent only became apparent to most after Election Day. However, seething beneath discontent with Mr Modi and the BJP raged and the ruling party failed to address such concerns. The absence of answers left many with only 1 option; vote for the opposition. Modi's radicalisation regarding Muslim communities mobilised many of some 200 million followers against him. The fear of what the BJP might do with 400 plus seats got poorer voters to the ballot box, said people were thanked by INC leading figure Rahul Gandhi.

The result reflects that voters can never be taken for granted and real problems lead to real changes. The confidence of the BJP was its ultimate doom, and the party strategists and analysts could not see the current and where voters were blowing. The focus on unimportant issues and forgetfulness in properly addressing real concerns led to the demise of the 400-seat dream.

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