The Shift: Biden Strengthens
With President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump set for a 2024 rematch we've looked at polls, past presidential election results from 1980 and onwards alongside other elections such as primaries, senatorial and house elections to predict the result.
Since last month President Biden and former President Trump have become the de facto nominees of their parties. Both reaching a majority of their parties delegate count in the primaries. Nikki Haley, Mr Trump's main contender, has dropped out. Inflation has stalled in its decline alongside the economic confidence slowing in its rise. The Biden campaign must successfully change the negative perception of the economy if it is to win. In a repeat of 2020 most will remain with the same candidate across party lines, therefore independents will play an instrumental role in November. Independents cite inflation, the economy and jobs as some of their most important issues. The continuing positive trend for the confidence of the economy will likely play into Biden's hands later, however, currently it is benefiting Trump, though that is changing fast. Furthermore, the former presidents involvement in hindering a border bill has continued to shed badly for the GOP and Mr Trump in particular. Moreover, the Biden campaign has become more responsive and better equipped at handling Mr Trump's jabs at the president - perhaps a sign of an ever looming general election. This month has seen a lot change and Mr Biden seems to be benefiting the most from it.
The map below takes these factors into account - historical results, importance of issues, and more. The map remains the same (2020 results) in many states, however, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada are seemingly prone to flip. These states are a necessity for Mr Trump. This is the year's first prediction handing the win to Joe Biden, meaning that, currently, President Biden would be re-elected president according to our prediction. Key states such as Michigan and Wisconsin have seen a trend toward the Democrats explaining the win.
President Biden barely inches re-election according to this prediction, a loss of any of the Democratic swing states - Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin - would result in a loss. The reason for Mr Biden winning over Mr Trump this month is simply due to Wisconsin returning to the blue side, in exchange for Nevada. The switch of these 2 states - Nevada and Wisconsin - and their differing amount of electors (6 for Nevada and 10 for Wisconsin) is why despite the Nevada defection Biden still wins. However, the Biden campaign remains behind in all swing states - Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin - according to the polls. However, the president has been gaining ground in a considerable amount of states and challenges Trump in national head-to-head polling. This prediction is not good news for Trump's bid, however, nor is it for Biden's either, both would preferably win by larger margins than the latest predictions have said. This election is close, it's as simple as that. This election is close, it's as simple as that.
Arizona and Georgia, both blue states in 2020, are set for a year of return, to the Republicans. Both states have historically supported the GOP, and 2020 seems to have been an exception rather than a new order. A relatively weak red wave in the 2022 mid-terms (for the House) showcases slight movement toward the Republicans, and in states as close as this that can be enough. However, both states have 2 Democratic senators, winning against the GOP in 2022, perhaps reflecting democratic strength in state-wide elections. The historical tendency and polling are the main reasons behind the defections. Though the tightening of polling and senatorial election results place these states in a much more unsure position than even last month, mainly polling, former President Trump still wins based on the aforementioned factors alongside slow political movements being common. Arizona may be Biden's best bet considering the wider margin won in 2020.
Michigan's primary result, in February, suggests much stronger support for Mr Biden than Mr Trump. The GOP was significantly more divided with Nikki Haley winning more than a quarter of the votes, outperforming expectations. The protest vote against Mr Biden did garner support, however, not enough to pose a major threat. The uncommitted are unlikely to switch to Mr Trump due to his foreign policy as well. Whilst the Haley voters are much more expected to bid adieu to the Republicans. Furthermore, the Democrats gained House seats in 2022 and both senators are Democrats alongside the popular governor. Moreover, the state House is currently equally divided among the parties whilst the state Senate has an overwhelming Democratic majority. Considering state Senate elections have larger districts it may be more representative of Michigan as a whole alongside the federal Senate elections and Governor. Pennsylvania follows the reasoning of Michigan, being a strong supporter of Democrats historically alongside the GOP losing seats in 2022. 2022 simply showcases that polling can get things wrong as the expected red wave turned out to be a mere figment of imagination.
Nevada has been moving toward Trump in the polls and despite its weighty Democratic history as it stands now, they seem to be favouring the former president more. Most federal elections are won by Democrats, whilst the governorship flipped to the GOP in 2022. The main reason for changing, despite being the only blue swing state in 2016 out of the bunch, is polling. The polling has been drifting in the Trump campaign's favour for a long time and the margins now suggest that it would become a red state, even if by a small tally.
North Carolina was narrowly won by Trump in 2020 and has become a more competitive state. The Democrats have increased their footprint in the state while managing to narrow polling significantly in the past month. However, the strong historical trend of going red makes North Carolina presumptively Republican, though polling is becoming closer.
Wisconsin staying blue, and changing blue since last month, is largely due to the reversal of polling favouring Mr Trump. His margins have become slimmer to President Biden's advantage. Moreover, the state has a blue governor alongside having had a tight Senate race in 2022, with Democrats managing to appeal to many independents. House elections did not go as well, the results being skewed in the GOPs favour, however, not by greatly convincing margins. The main reason for the state remaining blue is once again polling, specifically the reversal of Mr Trump's lead alongside a tendency to underestimate the Democrats
This is still anyones race and things could easily shift by November. However, as it stands now President Biden enjoys a slight edge over former President Trump. All the swing states are technically up for grabs, however, Nevada and Wisconsin seem to be the closest. Both candidates are likely to try and sway voters in these vital states. Mr Trump should focus on retaking Wisconsin and Biden should focus on protecting his lead in the state. Both sides have vulnerabilities and this race will, in the end, be determined by whoever can exploit those vulnerabilities to work best in their favour.
